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The arrogance of “economists”

It’s certainly been entertaining listening to various establishment economists trying to explain why their post brexit vote predictions were so catastrophically removed from the subsequent economic and market results. Of course the effects of brexit have not and will not hit home for some time to come but the fundamental mistake they have made is assuming that business would grind to a halt and put a gun to its head because we have voted leave.

This is of course nonsense. Business owners do not have the time to sit around pontificating and are quite simply not the type of personality to do so. Thank god. On the other hand various multinationals overstuffed with in house economists and time serving directors are a different story. Economies are often driven by confidence and sentiment and could it be that the so called experts have been talking to the former rather than the latter?

Now of course the guilty failing economists are trying to hit back and the arrogance is perfectly  encapsulated in this drivel from the Bank of England’s chief economist Andrew Haldane. Apparently the abject failure of his predictions is down to “irrational behaviour”. In other words it’s our fault and not his

He also appears to throw in a somewhat bizarre byline about the level of numeracy in this country. Given that economic forecasting is based largely on numbers then perhaps he’s has a point. Starting with overpaid deadbeats at the Bank of England perhaps?

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